Fonterra faces a very difficult period of farmer relationships as it navigates its annual results next week and the annual shareholders’ meeting two months later.

It will also announce the carbon reduction expectation for milk supply and the measures farmers must take to comply, although that timetable may be moderated if there is a National-led coalition government after October 14.

Despite near-record revenue and profit, Fonterra directors and senior managers will not be warmly thanked and rewarded for the strong financial outcome of the 2022-23 season.

Two seasons of $9-plus payouts are forecast to be followed by $7 in 2023-24, which is insufficient to cover sharply increased farm working expenses and debt repayments.

During spring, the monthly wash-up payments for a forecast final $8.20/kg milksolids price plus a likely 45-48c dividend and the 50c capital return will quickly fade in the rear-view mirror.

In such situations, farmers usually turn to strongly worded annual meeting remits and protest voting in the election of directors.

When they address the troops, chair Peter McBride and chief executive Miles Hurrell will be able to claim success in meeting their 2021 strategy targets: a 40-50% increase in operating profit, 9-10% return on capital, and $800 million distributed to shareholders.

But the milk price target of $6.50-$7.50/kg now looks to be hollow, under-cooked and unwelcome.

McBride and Hurrell have navigated the stormy waters between the large 2018-19 loss and what is expected to be a 2022-23 record profit, while changing strategy and structure.

But in the face of strong headwinds from China, they cannot expect plain sailing in the future.