Estimated GB milk deliveries totalled 1,024 million litres in July, only a minor decline of 0.3% compared to the same month of last year. Daily deliveries averaged 33.03 million litres per day. So far, production for this year’s milk season (April-July) totals 4,270 million litres, down 0.9% on the same period in 2023.
After a slow start to the year, we have seen milk production move much closer to year ago levels over the last couple of months. There are a couple of potential drivers for this. Firstly, more favourable weather has boosted grass growth and quality appears good, although there is some regional variation. AHDB’s Forage for Knowledge reports that most farms contributing data are achieving the correct average farm cover. Met office data shows that July rainfall sat in line with the UK long-term average for the month. The overall mean temperature was 14.8°C, with a cooler wetter start to the month evened out by higher temperatures in the last week.
Secondly, we continue to see milk prices strengthening, which may be incentivising producers to push production. In recent months, we have seen uplifts in prices for almost all contracts on the AHDB league table. UK wholesale markets have also witnessed good support, with prices for butter, bulk cream and mild cheddar.
Looking ahead, milk prices could continue to be supported later in the year if dairy product demand returns after the summer holiday season. The weather will continue to dictate some on farm decisions, as many farmers will be looking to take quality forage and plan for good grass cover in the autumn while keeping an eye on harvest progress and what that might mean for feed prices and availability come winter.
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