And that’s good news for beef, according to new Rabobank report.

Recent structural and cyclical changes are ushering in a new era of animal protein consumption in China, according to a Rabobank report.

Companies throughout the global animal protein supply chain will need to adjust their strategies to meet the sophisticated demands of modern Chinese consumers.

The report  argues that consumption trends are evolving in China’s animal protein market due to market oversupply and economic slowdown as well as structural factors such as demographic shifts and changing consumer values.

“Across recent decades, China’s animal proteins market has seen plenty of change due to rapid economic growth, the opening of its markets, and digitisation trends triggering the fast evolution of the country’s consumer market,” report author and RaboResearch senior animal protein analyst Chenjun Pan said.

“These developments saw Chinese consumers double their consumption of meat in less than 30 years, from 35kd per capita in the mid-1990s to 72kg in 2023, demonstrating a growth story that has attracted a lot of investment.”

China’s economy has changed, with GDP growth slowing significantly. At the same time, middle-class wealth has increased substantially, supporting a resilient spending power, albeit with income growth slowing.

The Chinese animal protein market was oversupplied across the past year, resulting in sluggish prices and a supply chain that is struggling to manage supply.

Despite these changes, in general China’s animal protein consumption remains resilient, Pan said.

“The days of one-size-fits-all products in China’s animal protein market are over. Today’s consumers expect more than just a product, they seek a comprehensive value proposition that includes good service and valued experiences.”

Forecasts indicate that the population will decline from the current 1.4 billion to 1.3 billion by 2050, and experts estimate that the population aged 65 and above may exceed 20%, the report says.

This will have a nuanced impact on animal protein consumption, Pan said.

“The market is gradually moving away from pork, traditionally the dominant choice, toward poultry, beef and seafood, which are favoured for their perceived health benefits.

“Additionally, the older generation’s adoption of e-commerce, food delivery and convenience foods mark the end of past consumption behaviours.”

From a New Zealand perspective, RaboResearch senior animal proteins analyst Jen Corkran said it is encouraging to see Chinese beef consumption continuing to grow in a broad sense.

China is New Zealand’s second largest market for beef exports, accounting for about a third of total exports over the 2023/24 season.

There is also scope to grow beef consumption as long as companies within the beef supply chain can successfully adapt to the changes in consumer trends within the Chinese market, she said.

NZ animal protein companies must pivot from a volume-centric to a consumer-centric approach.

“This involves focusing on value growth, with an emphasis on poultry, beef and high-value seafood.

“Animal protein companies should also look at ‘downstream extension’ and closer integration with foodservice and retailers which will help them secure margin and meet consumer needs more effectively.”

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