The recent U.S. Milk Production report unveils a remarkable shift in milk production trends, catching the attention of many in the dairy industry. Despite a prevailing decline throughout much of 2024, the latest figures reveal an unexpected resurgence, with a year-over-year increase of 0.4%.
The recent U.S. Milk Production report unveils a remarkable shift in milk production trends, catching the attention of many in the dairy industry. Despite a prevailing decline throughout much of 2024, the latest figures reveal an unexpected resurgence, with a year-over-year increase of 0.4%. This positive change contradicts earlier concerns, although Phil Plourd, president of Ever.Ag Insights is not surprised.
Plourd attributes the unconventional data from October to the effects of High Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) in California. According to Plourd, the situation in California led to a significant decrease in production there, reflected as a -0.7% change on a national scale. Excluding California, the nation experienced robust growth in milk production.
“In other words, outside of the California situation, milk production grew at a healthy clip,” he says.
Detailed Production Statistics
In October, milk production across the 24 major states reached a total of 18.0 billion lbs. With revised figures for September at 17.5 billion lbs., there was a noticeable increase of 0.5% from the previous month. Production per cow averaged 2,013 pounds in October, marking a modest 4-lb. increase compared to October 2023. The report also noted an increase in the number of milk cows on these farms, totaling 8.92 million—a rise of 21,000 from the previous year and 16,000 since September 2024.
Significant Factors Impacting Production
Plourd emphasizes two key elements from the report:
1. Increase in Cow Numbers: There was a notable rise of 19,000 head from month to month and an increase of 10,000 head compared to October 2023. This marks the first year-over-year growth in cow numbers in 17 months.
2. Geographic Growth Trends: Texas, South Dakota, and Kansas experienced the most significant increases in cow numbers and subsequent production output. These states are also positioned to expand cheese manufacturing capacity in the upcoming months, highlighting their growing influence in the industry.
Overall, the latest U.S. Milk Production report suggests positive prospects for the dairy industry. Plourd expresses confidence that this upward trend.
“This report should boost confidence in our ability to fill those new plants with milk,” he says.
The surprising upward trend in U.S. milk production indicates not only resilience but also potential for further growth. Amid challenges like HPAI in California, the industry’s adaptability and expansion efforts, particularly in key states, point toward sustained progress in the months ahead just in time for new processing plants to take in new milk.
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