Wildly different GHG emissions from farm to farm shows up major flaw in efficiency argument, Climate Change Commissioner Rod Carr says.
Retiring Climate Change Commissioner Rod Carr says such is the range of emissions from individual NZ dairy herds, greenhouse gas emissions leakage from production shifting overseas is not the issue it has been claimed.
It has been argued that regulatory and cost pressure from meeting greenhouse gas emissions goals on NZ primary production will push production of meat and dairy from efficient protein producers such as NZ to less efficient farmers overseas.
Agriculture Minister Todd McClay repeated this concern during his address to this week’s NZ Agriculture and Climate Change Conference in Wellington.
But Carr, who retires this month, told the conference that data from Fonterra shows emissions within and between NZ herds varied significantly.
That data shows that cows in NZ’s most efficient herds are releasing 8kg greenhouse gases/kg MS produced and the least efficient 18kg greenhouse gases/kg MS.
He claims that level of variation means a farm that ceases producing due to greenhouse gas emission costs cannot automatically claim to be an efficient NZ producer when measured in emissions per kg of protein.
It was also not a given that they will be less efficient than an overseas producers.
Carr said that greenhouse gas emissions efficiency was linked to cow genetics, on-farm management and use of supplementary feed, but there was a correlation between a high emitting herd and the cost structure of the farm.
Farmers who operated high cost farms tended to have cows that emitted high volumes of greenhouse gases.
Carr also disputed another common accusation, that the Climate Change Commission wants to replace sheep with carbon sequestering trees.
“Contrary to some claims, the Climate Change Commission is not recommending a cull of sheep.”
He says the sheep flock has been shrinking since 1984 and is likely to continue to do so as farmers find more economically profitable uses for their land.
Carr reiterated his organisation has regularly railed against using the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) to encourage carbon sequestering forestry, saying it buys time but does not reduce gross levels of carbon.
“Trees are not bad, in fact they are one of the most efficient was to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.
“The problem is that they are not permanent.”
On current trajectories, Carr said 2 million hectares of pastureland would be planted in forestry within 10 years, but that would create a surplus of forestry off-setting credits, potentially crashing the price on NZ units traded on the ETS.
He sees a much more viable option in using native plantings to offset emissions but says 1.6m ha would need to be planted by 2040.
Fonterra chief executive Miles Hurrell says its Scope 3 emissions plan is a cost of doing business, with players across the co-op’s value chain demanding emissions reductions. He tells Bryan that Fonterra is in a good place with a strong balance sheet and a streamlined strategy as it faces up to an uncertain global economic and geopolitical future.
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