Later this month, Donald Trump will step back into the role of President of the United States of America. While dairy exports specifically may not be on the top 10 list of things he plans to broach on his first day in office, overall trade with Canada and Mexico is top of mind.
The current U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA or CUSMA) was signed under Trump’s first administration, and since its inception two dispute resolution panels have convened to try and navigate issues between the U.S. and Canada regarding access to dairy quotas into Canada. Will the unresolved TRQ issue cause even more friction with the upcoming review of the trade agreement?
Becky Vargas, senior vice president of trade and work force policy for International Dairy Foods Association, says that her organization feels the text of the dispute resolution was very clear but Canada is not working to meet those terms in their view. Whether or not this influences a recommitment to the existing deal or a full review remains to be seen.
It’s possible, she says, that the U.S. could pursue a review only and hold Canada to account for access that was committed to originally but that the U.S. feels has not been granted. Conversely, she says, there are those within the dairy sector who are calling for a renegotiation of the agreement and more access.
As to whether or not Vargas thinks the U.S. is looking to flood the Canadian market with dairy, she says that there are specialty products or particular types of dairy that may be of interest to a Canadian market, but Canada is not currently a main focus of dairy exports overall. Southeast Asia, Mexico and China are key markets for U.S. dairy.
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