The majority of this impressive milk production growth will originate from Asian and African countries, with India and Pakistan leading the charge. India’s volumes are expected to soar from 236.7 million tonnes in 2025 to 323.3 million tonnes in 2034, adding 84 million litres over the decade. Pakistan is also set for significant expansion, with output projected to climb from 66.6 billion tonnes (64.6 billion litres) in 2025 to 87 billion tonnes (81.5 billion litres) by 2034. In contrast, growth will be slower in the US and New Zealand, while the European Union is forecast to see a slight decline due to falling cow numbers despite yield increases.

A striking disparity in dairy cow yield remains a key factor in global production dynamics. Milk yield per cow in OECD member (developed) countries is nearly four times higher than in developing nations. In 2025, developed countries are expected to average 6.86 tonnes (6,654 litres) per cow, compared to 1.8 tonnes (1,746 litres) in developing regions. This means four cows in developing countries are needed to match the output of just one in Europe or North America, underscoring the potential for efficiency gains to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in global dairy production.

Despite the projected surge in overall production, international dairy trade will remain relatively small, with less than 7% of global milk production traded across borders due to its perishability and high water content, predominantly in dried powder forms. However, international trade in dairy products is still forecast to grow by 12% to 13.8 million tonnes over the next decade. This trade will continue to be dominated by the “Big Three” exporters: the US, New Zealand, and the EU, collectively projected to account for 64% of cheese, 69% of Whole Milk Powder (WMP), 73% of butter, and 78% of Skim Milk Powder (SMP) exports by 2034.