The Dairy Giant Lifts Its Farmgate Milk Price Forecast for the 2024/25 Season, Signaling a Positive End to the Dairy Year for New Zealand Producers.
In a move set to benefit New Zealand’s dairy farmers, Fonterra Co-operative Group Ltd. has announced an increase to its forecast Farmgate Milk Price for the 2024/25 season. The forecast has been raised by 15 cents to $10.15 per kgMS, with the price range narrowing to between $10.10 and $10.20 per kgMS. This upward revision is a crucial piece of data journalism that signals a more stable and positive financial outlook for the country’s agribusiness sector.
According to CEO Miles Hurrell, the decision was driven by favorable market conditions and a stable sales book. He stated that while the season began with a wide price range due to potential volatility from geopolitical dynamics, Global Dairy Trade (GDT) prices have remained steady. This stability, combined with the cooperative’s solid forward sales, has allowed Fonterra to confidently lift its price forecast for the year.
The positive forecast extends into the next season as well. For the 2025/26 season, Fonterra has kept its forecast Farmgate Milk Price at a midpoint of $10.00 per kgMS, even as it narrows the range from $8.00 – $11.00 per kgMS to $9.00 – $11.00 per kgMS. This decision is also supported by continued strong performance in Global Dairy Trade prices, which remain at high levels.
Despite the positive outlook, the cooperative’s leadership remains cautious. While the price midpoint for the new season is strong, Mr. Hurrell acknowledged that the risk of volatility still exists. The relatively wide forecast range for the 2025/26 season reflects this ongoing uncertainty. This shows a balanced approach to dairy economics, prioritizing stability while still acknowledging potential market shifts.
For the international dairy community, this announcement is a key indicator of market health. Fonterra’s ability to increase its payout and maintain a strong forecast for the coming season suggests sustained global demand for dairy products. The move provides a valuable benchmark for analysts and signals a period of relative confidence for one of the world’s largest dairy exporters. The final price for the 2024/25 season will be confirmed in September with the release of the cooperative’s annual results.
Source: Fonterra, “Fonterra lifts FY25 forecast Farmgate Milk Price and narrows FY26 range”
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