
Analyst Calls Potential Valuation a ‘Great’ Sign for the Co-op.
An A$2 billion bid for Fonterra’s Oceania business is being hailed as great news, according to Matt Montgomerie, a senior analyst with Forsyth Barr. The potential valuation, if accurate, would imply a strong enterprise value to earnings before interest and taxes (EV/EBIT) ratio, a key metric used in financial analysis. Montgomerie notes that although Fonterra has not disclosed specific earnings for its Australian and New Zealand operations, a pro-rata calculation suggests a high EV/EBIT multiple, which is very supportive of the top end of the analyst’s valuation range.
The article details a multi-front battle for Fonterra’s assets. Media reports out of Australia indicate that a consortium led by Bega Cheese and potentially a European cooperative like FrieslandCampina has made a A$2 billion bid for the Oceania business. This is one of three players making a bid, alongside the world’s largest dairy company, Lactalis, and Japanese food company Meiji Holdings. The competitive landscape highlights the intense interest in Fonterra’s portfolio of popular dairy brands, including Western Star butter and cheeses like Perfect Italiano and Mainland.
A significant hurdle for one of the bidders has been cleared, placing them at the front of the queue. The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) has indicated that it will not oppose Lactalis’ proposed acquisition of Fonterra’s consumer, dairy ingredients, and food service businesses. The ACCC’s decision is crucial, as both companies acquire raw milk from dairy farmers in Victoria and Tasmania, raising initial competition concerns. With the regulatory hurdle cleared, Lactalis now has a distinct advantage in the bidding process.
The ACCC’s deputy chair, Mick Keogh, confirmed that a detailed review of the transaction was conducted. While some concerns were raised about the consolidation of two of the largest buyers of raw milk in Victoria and further consolidation in Tasmania, the ACCC determined the acquisition was “unlikely to result in a substantial lessening of competition.” The commission found that alternative buyers would continue to constrain Lactalis in key regions, ensuring market dynamics would not be substantially altered by the deal.
For the international dairy community, this high-stakes bidding war is a fascinating case study in agribusiness consolidation. It demonstrates the strategic maneuvering of global players vying for valuable assets. The ACCC’s detailed analysis provides key insights into the regulatory process of major mergers, while the analyst’s commentary offers a glimpse into the financial valuation. Ultimately, with Fonterra farmers having the final say and the board seeking the best possible outcome, the divestment process is a pivotal moment for the future of the region’s dairy economics.
Source: Rural News Group: Fonterra Oceania bid valuation
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