According to a new report from CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange, this component imbalance could place US cheesemakers at a competitive disadvantage globally. Analyst Corey Geiger points out that while the US successfully increased butterfat to meet market demand, there is now an “oversupply.” Cheesemakers typically aim for a protein-to-fat ratio near $\text{0.80}$. The article provides crucial data journalism: this ratio has slipped from a stable $\text{0.82}$ to $\text{0.84}$ (from $\text{2000}$ to $\text{2017}$) down to 0.77 in recent years.

This shift is a serious concern because over half of the US milk supply is destined for cheese production. The article notes that excessive butterfat levels can compromise cheese quality, often resulting in a softer product and reduced production yields. Unlike the US, its largest competitors—the EU (the world’s largest dairy exporter) and New Zealand (the second largest)—have maintained a much steadier protein-to-fat ratio, allowing them to avert these component issues.

The economic implications are clear for the agribusiness food supply chain. Unlike their global counterparts, domestic cheese processors now face added costs because they must standardize inbound milk. This means they must either add a source of protein (like milk protein concentrate) or physically pull out the excess butterfat. This necessity reduces processing efficiency, which could ultimately put downward pressure on farmgate milk pricing, despite overall strong demand for components.