With spring approaching and the country still in lockdown, should farmers be concerned about whether the spring peak will bring the same issues as last year?
At the latest Milk Forecasting Forum, we asked the main milk processors, consultants and farming unions, how concerned they were about the upcoming peak, covering the following main factors:
Most of these concerns are the same potential risks as every year. The concern for pandemic-related issues was relatively low, but concern around trade disruption has been heightened by the EU exit.
The UK often exports excess cream and skim concentrate to help balance volumes over the peak. Discussions at the Milk Forecasting Forum established that the new trading environment isn’t a concern for regular exporters, as there is demand in Europe for the product. However, issues could arise in the event of a site breakdown or similar, as the paperwork requirements would take too long to sort out for exports with short notice. A factory breakdown could, therefore, have more serious consequences this spring than it would do normally.
The group did raise concerns about Ireland already running at capacity. While mainland Britain rarely exports milk to Ireland, it does happen on occasion when milk volumes are particularly high.
Overall the consensus of the Milk Forecasting Forum was that risks over the peak are in line with 2019, rather than the heightened risks seen in 2020. If all goes well, this should mean no repeat of the milk curbing seen last spring – but the situation will still need to be closely monitored for any changes, especially linked to trade friction.
