U.S. dairy exports improved modestly year over year in August, with gains in several major product categories.
Export volume rose 1.7% year over year, putting year-to-date volume into positive territory for the first time in 2024, albeit less than a 1% increase.
The essentially flat year-to-date result epitomizes the month-by-month performance tally. Over the first eight months of 2024, year-over-year volume increased four times and decreased four times, according to U.S. Dairy Export Council.
USDEC had not yet responded to Capital Press’ requests on Tuesday for input on the flat exports.
However, it earlier reported lower exports in 2023 were due to elevated inflation, disappointing growth in key export markets, particularly China, and increased competition from the European Union and New Zealand.
Value increases
While export volume decreased in August, export value increased 10% year over year to $708 million — the biggest rise of the year — as commodity prices climbed and the U.S export portfolio favored cheese and proteins.
“Global cheese demand continues to surge, with total world cheese trade from all major suppliers up for 10 straight months through July,” USDEC economists said in the latest trade report.
The U.S. continues to be one of the biggest beneficiaries of that trend, despite the steep rise in U.S. prices this past spring and a second pricing surge that started in mid-July.
U.S. cheese export volume jumped 15% and 5,470 metric tons year over year in August, with widespread gains across geographies.
Cheese gains
Year-over-year cheese exports in August rose:
• 17% (2,256 MT) to Mexico.
• 136% (1,245 MT) to Middle East/North Africa.
• 93% (870 MT) to Southeast Asia.
• 43% (802 MT) to South America.
• 13% (755 MT) to Central America/Caribbean.
Low-protein whey shipments increased 5% year over year in August after increasing 19% May through July. The August slowdown came from U.S. top customer China, where volume fell 12% year over year.
Recovery in China’s pig sector helped revive flagging U.S. low-protein whey exports earlier this year, but pig prices in China have been sliding since mid-August, the economists said.
Ups and downs
Exports of whey protein concentrate, however, rose to their second-highest monthly total of all time, with shipments to China surging 281% year over year in August. Those shipments more than offset a 30% decline to Japan and an 18% decline to Brazil.
Exports of nonfat dry milk and skim milk powder slipped 1% year over year as monthly exports to Southeast Asia fell 8%. A 32% increase to China could not make up for significant decreases in Vietnam and Indonesia.
Looking ahead, on the positive side for demand, inflation in most major markets is near pre-pandemic levels, and the World Bank believes it should continue to ease back to expected averages in the next two years.
At the same time, headwinds — including the risk of increasingly frequent extreme climate events and conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine — continue to temper the outlook, the economists said.
U.S. dairy exports (YTD through August)
NDM/SMP — 514,492 MT, down 8%
Dry whey products — 401,192 MT, up 9%
Cheese — 346,043 MT, up 21%
Lactose 2— 82,920 MT, down 9%
WMP — 17,364 MT, down 7%
Butterfat — 27,554 MT, up 6%
MPC — 28,903MT, down 6%
Infant formula — 15,691 MT, down 20%
Evap/Cond — 12,505 MT, up 12%
Casein — 4,953 MT, up 144%
Milk/cream (liters) — 101,392 MT, up 4%
Total volume* — 1,506,981MT, even
Total value — $5,506.6 million, down 2%
*milk solids equivalent
Source: USDEC
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