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US dairy exports see mixed May results, with record cheese sales overshadowed by a 15-year low in Chinese demand.
China's Ghost Dairy Exports Face Headwinds

Record Cheese Sales Can’t Mask 15-Year Low in Chinese Demand for US Dairy.

The global dairy market is currently navigating a complex landscape, with U.S. dairy exports in May 2025 reflecting a mixed bag of results heavily influenced by a significant drop in demand from China. While overall export values saw a positive 13 percent increase, reaching $803 million, total dairy shipments dipped nearly two percent. This decline is largely attributed to ongoing tariff tensions and a concerning slump in Chinese demand, which has plummeted to levels not witnessed in 15 years, creating a substantial overhang for the entire dairy sector.

Despite the challenging environment posed by China’s reduced appetite, other markets showed resilience. Notably, overall sales to Canada experienced a six percent increase, a boost linked to favorable U.S. prices. Furthermore, U.S. cheese exports set a new record volume, demonstrating strong performance in this key product category. These gains, however, were partially offset by a 12 percent decrease in shipments to Mexico, a vital trading partner for American dairy producers.

The article underscores the dramatic impact of China’s diminished presence. While total butterfat export sales are remarkably on a record pace for the year, with volumes soaring over 150 percent compared to the previous year, the broad decline in Chinese purchasing remains a dominant factor. Even with this positive butterfat trend and a more than 30 percent climb in exports to Mexico in May, the absence of robust Chinese demand casts a long shadow over the future of dairy exports.

Similarly, nonfat dry milk/skim milk powder exports saw a modest two percent increase for the month, illustrating some underlying strength despite the nearly 80 percent decline in demand from China for this specific product. Conversely, shipments of low-protein whey dropped a significant 25 percent, with China accounting for a staggering 70 percent of this decrease. This highlights how targeted shifts in Chinese import patterns can disproportionately affect specific dairy commodities.

Ultimately, the figures from May 2025 paint a clear picture for the international dairy community: while diversification and strength in other markets are crucial, the significant reduction in Chinese demand represents a major hurdle for U.S. dairy exports. This situation necessitates a strategic re-evaluation of market dependencies and a proactive approach to developing alternative high-growth regions to ensure long-term stability and profitability for American agribusiness in the dynamic global dairy trade.

Source: Brownfield Ag News: Lost Chinese Demand Overhangs Dairy Exports

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