GB milk deliveries in November totalled 1,018 million litres, up 4.4% compared to the same period in 2023. Deliveries averaged at 33.95 million litres per day.
Production for this year’s milk season far (April-November) has totalled 8,279 million litres, up 0.4% compared to the same period last year. Increasing deliveries from September onwards coupled with a very significant increase in the month of November has moved deliveries for the milk year-to-date into positive territory, after a challenging start to the year. AHDB reported milk prices that were announced in December remained at high levels, thereby offering more confidence for farmers and boosting milk production.
Dry weather in the first half of November also supported higher production levels as many cows stayed out for longer than usual. This will also spare some forage for later in the season.
Our latest GB milk production forecast projected a total production of 12.43 bn litres for the 2024/25, with a continuing positive outlook ahead. This predicts total GB milk production for the current milk season to end at 0.9% higher than the previous milk year. The boom in autumn calvings as some farmers move to an Autumn block has also augmented the increasing production.
The milk to feed price ratio is looking very favourable towards the expansion zone in production looking ahead. Although we have received anecdotal reports that silage quality is mixed to poor, following wet weather through the season, the firm tone of milk prices will incentivize farmers to supplement with extra feed.
If production continues on the same trajectory we could well start to see a correction in prices through the spring as we head towards the flush. Thus far the year has been marked by a shortage of milk on the continent, and particularly in Ireland, but as flows increase elsewhere, we could be in an oversupply situation. Commodity prices look to be past the peak at this point.
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