The main causes include problems in milk production (due to weather conditions or livestock diseases), changes in consumer habits in Asia, and a very tight supply, which maintains upward pressure on prices.

This scenario is generating a domino effect: bakeries and pastry shops face rising operating costs, along with narrower margins. The search for alternatives or substitutes is intensifying, although often with compromises in the quality or flavor of the final product.

There are no clear signs of relief. Global prices remain high, and a quick market recovery is not expected, given the persistence of supply restrictions and sustained demand on several continents. For the global dairy industry and its links, this butter crisis requires a review of raw material management, diversification of portfolios (e.g., anhydrous fat, alternative oil-solubles), and strengthening of sourcing strategies and long-term contracts. It also highlights the vulnerability of chains when they lack adaptive capacity in the face of structural shocks.