The co-op’s analysis finds that some buyers are acting from supply-security concerns, even though there’s no immediate shortage. Ornua notes that commodity prices have likely bottomed out and may stabilise through the first quarter, though it remains uncertain how much they will rise later in the period. Caution persists, as participants recognize that a decline in milk supply will take time to materialize.

Global milk supply data continues to shape the narrative: 2025 saw an approximate 2.5% increase in output, and 2026 is forecast for a slower ~1% growth overall. Seasonal patterns suggest that production could expand by about 3% in the first half of the year before tapering off in the second half, as farmers adjust to market signals and feed cost dynamics.

Regionally, milk collections climbed across major exporting areas in late 2025. Ornua reports about a 4.7% rise in global collections in December, with the European Union up roughly 5.3% thanks to improved margin and per-cow yield performance. Annual EU supply could increase by about 0.5%, while Irish and UK production also saw strong year-end gains in late 2025 compared to prior years.