It’ll be much harder to weather than covid or global downturn, majority tell ASB survey.
Most New Zealand businesses surveyed believe United States tariff polices will have a much greater impact on them than covid-19 or the Global Financial Crisis.
A survey by Talbot Mills Research for ASB polled 300 business leaders and found 80% of exporters were concerned at the impact in the coming year of US President Donald Trump’s tariff policies.
Meat, dairy and wine were seen as being most vulnerable from tariffs within the food and fibre sector. Wool and seafood were expected to fare better.
Nearly one-quarter of businesses see at least some opportunity in the tariffs and 39% cited support from banks as critical to navigating this environment.
The survey found 10% of businesses and 14% of exporters have acted to reduce the negative impacts of tariffs, including by raising prices, shifting markets or cutting costs.
Just under one-third (30%) believe they can make up losses through new customers or cost savings, 25% from operational efficiencies, and 22% from other revenue streams.
A further 22% are unsure, with uncertainty highest among small businesses.
In April Trump announced the imposition of tariffs on virtually all imports as part of his America First trade policy to protect US industries and address trade deficits. He imposed a 10% tariff on NZ exports.
The survey found businesses are split on how long any potential disruption could last.
More than three-quarters of exporters expect the cost of doing business with the US to increase 10% or more in the coming year.
That concern is higher among exporters (78%) and increases with business size, with worry growing to 88% among businesses with 100 or more staff.
The potential impacts of tariffs are of most concern, include slowing economic growth (39%), increased operating costs (32%) and supply chain disruptions (28%).
Nearly a quarter of businesses were worried about consumer backlash due to price inflation (24%) while 23% fear a China-US Trade war.
ASB’s executive general manager for business banking, Rebecca James, said while businesses view US tariffs is troubling, she is pleased that nearly a quarter see opportunity.
“New Zealand has a reputation on the world stage for ingenuity and a can-do attitude, and we want businesses to know there are things they can do to future-proof and manage risks in turbulent times.”
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