
Rabobank’s latest forecast warns of a decline in Australian milk volumes, impacting the global dairy market.
A new forecast from Rabobank has painted a challenging picture for the Australian dairy industry, predicting a decline in milk volumes for the 2024/25 season. This expected drop is attributed to a combination of factors, including persistent unfavorable weather conditions and the high costs of production that are squeezing farmer profitability. The report suggests that these combined pressures will make it difficult for producers to maintain or increase their milk output, leading to a tighter domestic supply.
The report also highlights that a lower Australian milk supply will have a notable impact on the global dairy market. Australia is a key player in international dairy economics, particularly for markets in Asia. A reduction in exportable surplus from a major producer can create a ripple effect, influencing commodity prices and trade flows. This is a critical data point for analysts and traders who are watching for any shifts in the supply-demand balance.
Domestically, the forecast of lower milk volumes is expected to place more pressure on milk processors. They will face increased competition for a shrinking pool of raw milk from farmers, potentially leading to higher farmgate milk prices. While a price increase can provide some financial relief for producers, it could also impact the profitability of processors and manufacturers who need to manage their costs effectively in a competitive market.
The article makes it clear that the outlook is not entirely bleak. The report suggests that while volumes may be down, a modest recovery is anticipated in the latter half of the season as a result of favorable seasonal conditions. However, the initial deficit will be difficult to make up, reinforcing the need for strategic planning across the entire agribusiness supply chain to mitigate the effects of the expected volume decline.
This forecast serves as a critical warning for all stakeholders, from producers to analysts. The current economic and climatic environment is testing the resilience of the Australian dairy sector. Understanding these trends and adapting to them is crucial for ensuring stability in a volatile market. The report underscores the interconnectedness of local challenges and global market dynamics, emphasizing the importance of data-driven decision-making in the modern dairy landscape.
Source: Dairy News Australia, “Dairy forecast predicts lower volumes”
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