In a decisive turn in its agri-food policy, Mexico is promoting an ambitious plan to reduce—and eventually eliminate—its dependence on the United States for powdered milk supply. The strategy, led by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (Sader), aims to boost local production, revive domestic plants, and strengthen social programs—such as “Milk for Wellbeing”—to consolidate national dairy sovereignty.
Reviving Plants and Supporting Rural Areas
Starting in July 2025, Sader Undersecretary Leonel Cota Montaño confirmed that the government is currently working with dairy farmers in 15 states to develop domestic powdered milk production. One of the flagship measures is the reopening of food processing plants that were privatized in the 1990s, such as the one in Campeche, with the goal of recovering key industrial infrastructure and increasing national processing capacity.
Economic and Social Support
The “Milk for Wellbeing” program, which will reach 7 million beneficiaries this year and is projected to serve 10 million by the end of the presidential term, is gaining prominence. Through direct purchases in producing states—such as Jalisco and Chihuahua—fair prices of 11.50 pesos per liter are guaranteed for farmers, while consumers can access quality milk for 7.50 pesos. In Jalisco alone, the government buys 800,000 liters per day, while in Chihuahua, 600,000 liters are purchased daily, injecting around 16 million pesos into the economy every day.
How Much Does Mexico Depend on the U.S.?
Until a few years ago, Mexico imported around 50,000 tons of powdered milk annually from California at a price of 80 pesos per kilo, before the substitution strategy began to take effect. However, 2024 data shows that the United States remains Mexico’s main supplier of agricultural goods, with imports of grains, meats, and dairy products totaling $31.4 billion. Mexico is expected to surpass Canada as the top export destination for U.S. agri-food products in 2025.
Structural Challenges and Criticism
Still, the goal faces significant challenges. Jorge Esteve Revolons, president of the National Agricultural Council (CNA), warned that Mexican producers are at a considerable disadvantage compared to the U.S., where scale and infrastructure allow powdered milk to be produced at lower costs. Additionally, Mexico’s agricultural sector is traditionally more focused on grains, fruits, and vegetables, rather than intensive dairy production.
A Comprehensive Strategy: Support and Sovereignty
The government’s response has been comprehensive. Beyond infrastructure recovery, subsidies have been granted to dairy farmers, alongside investments in genetic improvement, technical assistance, infrastructure upgrades, and the rollout of initiatives through programs like “Production for Wellbeing” and “Harvesting Sovereignty.” The government plans to increase national milk production by 15%, aiming to reach 15 billion liters by 2030.
Socioeconomic Impact
This plan serves a dual purpose: reinforcing food sovereignty and stimulating rural economic activity. By offering prices above those of the private market, regional economies are strengthened, while price volatility is curbed and consumers are protected from external cost increases. Key states like Jalisco, Chihuahua, Campeche, and Zacatecas stand out, where investments are generating jobs and revitalizing rural areas.
An Uncertain but Promising Future
Although competition with imported products—cheaper and produced at scale—remains a constant challenge, the federal plan is committed to building a strong and profitable national dairy chain. If its goals are met, Mexico could substantially reduce its powdered milk imports in the coming years and reinforce its domestic dairy ecosystem.
Damián Morais
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