The golden weather of international trade is well and truly over, according to New Zealand’s top trade negotiator.
Speaking at DairyNZ’s Farmers Forum in Hamilton last week, Vangelis Vitalis, the deputy secretary for trade and economic warned that “the jungle is growing back”.
He told 300 dairy farmers and rural professionals that it wasn’t just the big powers like China and the US who are acting outside international trade rules.
“All the big players are starting to sit outside the rules, and the world is a much more uncertain place for us now,” he says.
Vitalis says the golden weather for international trade began in 1985 and lasted until 2018 – a period where rules were enforceable.
He cited cases New Zealand took to the WTO and won: a dairy case against the EU, a sheepmeat case against the US and most recently, apple access into Australia.
He noted that Australia lost the case and had to open their markets to NZ apples.
“The rules worked; this was the golden weather. And protectionism, whether it was tariff or subsidies, they were coming down.”
Vitalis says in 2015 it was reasonable to assume that over the next 15-20 years, tariffs would really bottom out. However, this didn’t happen.
“This was the wonderful period; we are not there anymore,” he says.
“The golden weather is well and truly over; the jungle’s growing back now.”
He adds that we are in a more challenging situation now, with the actions of US President Donald Trump.
But he says it’s not just the US behaving badly on international trade.
“Just ask Australia; they had their wine, sheepmeat and dairy trade cut off by China because then PM [Scott] Morrison made a comment about the origins of Covid.
“Within 48 hours, China has cut off all Australian exports. They’ve just, after nearly five years, picked up that again.”
Vitalis says it’s not just about the US and China.
He says the big guys are all feeling that they can act outside the rules now.
“That is not something we are used to,” he says.
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