The latest preliminary data put output at 18.71 billion pounds, down 0.5% from October 2022. The top 24-State total, at 17.94 billion, was down 0.04%.
The September 50-State total was revised up 17 million pounds from last month’s estimate, which put output down 0.1% from 2022 instead of the 0.2% originally reported. The 24 state revision was also up 17 million pounds, up 0.1%, instead of the 0.03% loss originally reported.
October cow numbers totaled 9.37 million head, down 6,000 from the September count, which was revised down 6,000 head. The herd is 42,000 below a year ago and the smallest since January 2022. The 24-State count was down 5,000 from September, which was revised up 6,000 head, but is 19,000 below a year ago.
California output fell to 3.3 billion pounds, down 88 million or 2.6% from a year ago. Cow numbers were down 10,000 and output per cow was down 40 pounds.
Wisconsin, with 2.7 billion pounds produced, was up 23 million or 0.9% from a year ago, thanks to a 20-pound gain per cow offsetting the loss of 1,000 cows.
Idaho was down 1.4%, on a 35-pound drop per cow. Cow numbers were up 2,000.
Michigan was up 2.6%, Minnesota eked out a 0.3% increase, and New Mexico showed the biggest loss, down 9.0%, on 24,000 fewer cows and 10 pounds less per cow. New York was up 2.1%
Oregon was down 4.1%, on 4,000 fewer cows and a 15-pound per cow decline.
Pennsylvania was off 0.5%, South Dakota was up 6.6%, the biggest gain, and Texas was down 1.9%.
Washington state was off 0.4%, on a 10-pound drop per cow. Cow numbers were unchanged from a year ago.
Dairy prices mixed
Dairy prices were mixed the week before Thanksgiving. CME Cheddar block closed Friday at $1.60 per pound, unchanged on the week but 63.25 cents below a year ago.
The barrels climbed to $1.68 last Tuesday, highest since Oct. 27, but plunged 11 cents Friday, closing at $1.56, 9 cents lower on the week, 36.75 cents below a year ago, and a typical 4 cents below the blocks. There were 14 sales of block last week and 9 of barrel.
The blocks were unchanged Monday but a trade took them down a penny Tuesday, to $1.59, lowest since July 19.
Dairy Market News reported that spot milk availability remained similar to much of early fall: tight and closer to balanced. Mid-week price highs were at $1 over Class III. Nonfat dry milk usage in cheese processing has increased.
Western retail cheese purchases are strong. Grocers used retail ads to entice customers ahead of Thanksgiving. The Dairy Market News Retail Report underscored that as the number of ads for conventional and organic cheese increased from the prior week’s survey by over 60%. Food service cheese sales in the region were softening as consumers are, reportedly, forgoing dining out due to high menu prices. Contacts say cheese produced domestically is priced at a premium to that produced internationally and thus contributing to light export demand.
After plunging almost 51 cents the previous week, CME butter regained a little ground and climbed to $2.69 per pound last Tuesday, but closed Friday at $2.49, down 11 cents on the week, 32 cents below a year ago, and $1.0125 below its recent record high. Sales totaled 10 loads for the week.
Monday’s butter recovered 2.75 cents on 2 trades and added 1.25 cents Tuesday, hitting $2.53, with 8 loads exchanging hands.
Butter market tones started to brace after a precipitous drop the past few weeks, says DMN, but processors say demand has not been as negatively impacted as some would expect. Butter makers continue to report upticks in cream availability. Churning rates are expected to increase near-term as cream tankers trade at lower multiples.
Grade A nonfat dry milk climbed to $1.22 per pound last Monday, highest since Oct. 23, as global prices have strengthened, but then gave it back Wednesday and closed Friday at $1.1925, down 0.75 cents on the week and 23.50 cents below a year ago. There were 13 sales reported for the week.
The powder was unchanged Monday with no activity but lost 2 cents Tuesday on a trade, slipping to $1.1725, reflecting the weak GDT.
Dry whey climbed to 42 cents per pound last Tuesday, highest since April 4, but closed Friday at 41 cents, 1.25 cents higher on the week but 3 cents below a year ago, with 10 loads finding new homes on the week.
Monday’s whey was offered 0.75 cents lower and lost a half-cent Tuesday on 2 sales, slipping to 39.75 cents per pound.
Demand could be better
September total cheese disappearance was up from August and a year ago, according to HighGround Dairy economist Betty Berning in the Nov. 20 “Dairy Radio Now” broadcast, based on the latest Dairy Supply and Utilization report.
Cheese disappearance, at 1.2 billion pounds, was up 0.9% from September 2022, and Berning credited “rebounding domestic consumption of American-style cheese, which was up 6.2%, following a dismal August. That plus impressive “Other-cheese” exports which marked the highest September volume on record.
Butter utilization totaled 170.7 million pounds, up 6.1%, thanks to domestic use being up 10.6%. Exports were down 57%.
Dry whey disappearance totaled 81.3 million pounds, up 6.8%, with domestic use up 78.4%, while exports, at 34.2 million, were down 31.2%.
When asked why cheese prices aren’t better than they are, Berning cited HighGround’s November Outlook and said, “There’s been a few different dynamics playing out” but they are also surprised prices are lingering around $1.60 but says new processing capacity has come on line and exports, while better than August, were not great, and we’ve seen changes in product mix.
Demand isn’t that great, and the rally we typically see in the fall just did not materialize. “We still have Christmas coming, Hanukkah, and all the holidays, plus Super Bowl,” she concluded, “So perhaps we’ll see some lift and demand will pick up.”
Fluid sales down 0.9%
Fluid milk sales looked a little more encouraging in September but were still below a year ago. The latest data shows packaged sales at 3.5 billion pounds, down just 0.9% from September 2022.
Conventional product sales totaled 3.3 billion pounds, down 0.7% from a year ago. Organic products, at 228 million pounds, were down 4.0%.
Packaged fluid sales January to September totaled 31.5 billion pounds, down 1.8% from 2022. Conventional sales totaled 29.4 billion pounds, down 1.9%. Organic products, at 2.1 billion, were down 1.5%.
GDT unchanged
There wasn’t much excitement in the Global Dairy Trade auction two days before the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday. The weighted average was unchanged, after slipping 0.7% on Nov. 7.
Lactose showed the biggest gain, up 6.4%, after a 19.2% rise. Whole milk powder was up 1.9%, after dropping 2.7%, and anhydrous milkfat inched 0.9% higher, following a 3.1% rise.
StoneX says the GDT 80% butterfat butter price equates to $2.1388 per pound U.S., down 2.5 cents from the Nov. 7 event, and compares to CME butter which closed Tuesday at $2.53. GDT Cheddar, at $1.6496, was down 18.4 cents, after rising 8.4 cents, and compares to Tuesday’s CME block Cheddar at $1.59. GDT skim milk powder averaged $1.1894 per pound, down from $1.2356 (4.6 cents), and whole milk powder averaged $1.3731 per pound, from $1.3476 (2.6 cents). CME Grade A nonfat dry milk closed Tuesday at $1.1725 per pound.
