The results of this week’s United States’ presidential election could have a significant impact on Irish farming and agri-business.

This has nothing to do with politics, but everything to do with the trade policies, followed by either of the candidates, when they assume office next January.

One might argue that Kamala Harris can be regarded as a reasonably steady hand on the tiller, but the same cannot be said, where her Republican opponent is concerned.

Donald Trump has made it very clear that he wants to follow an isolationist policy, where all matters pertaining to trade are concerned and how America deals with the world in that more general sense.

One obvious follow on from this stance, might well be the imposition of larger tariffs on all imports into the US, including food and drink.

Presidential election

Ireland is already a major exporter of such products to America, and wants to do more business in this context. The grass-fed beef initiative is a case in point.

Any move to raise tariffs on imports will leave the European Union (EU) with no option, but to respond accordingly. A very easy target for Brussels to aim at in this regard would be America’s corn, grain and soya sectors.

Most EU countries import significant quantities of grains and proteins from the United States for inclusion in animal feed rations.

So, could we be looking at the development of stronger trading relationships between South America and Europe into the future, if US maize and soya imports are restricted against the backdrop of a Trump presidency?

But the even bigger question, relates to Trump’s approach to the war in Ukraine.

If he forces Kiev to do a deal with Moscow, the implications for the global trading of grains and plant proteins could be enormous.

This has to be assessed against the backdrop of Ireland’s significant reliance on imported feedstuffs from a livestock production perspective.

Trade thrives, while international political, economic and security-related conditions remain stable.

However, the polar opposite set of circumstances kick-in when instability becomes the main driving force for international affairs.

Let’s be honest, Trump ‘does not do stability’ in any sense of the term. So yes, the results of the 2024 US presidential election will be of great interest to Irish agri food.

If Trump is successful, we won’t have long to see how the wind blows. We know from history that he doesn’t dither when it comes to making important decisions.

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