Dairy farmer incomes are set to rise in New Zealand on the back of improved global demand and stronger Chinese imports.
Milk producers across the globe are in for a good 2025 Rabobank has forecast, with incomes set to increase in most dairy exporting regions.
In a market analysis that will be welcomed by Irish dairy farmers, the bank has predicted improved margins for 2025.
This year is likely to be one of “improved margins for most producers in exporting regions”, Rabobank maintained.
While Rabobank predicts that global milk output will increase by 0.8% in 2025, demand growth for dairy produce is expected to top 1% and could hit 1.3%.
‘Improved prosperity’
For New Zealand dairy farmers, this year will bring a “period of improved prosperity” as exports to China recover, Rabobank predicted.
“The year ahead is likely to be characterised by improved demand from China, following multiple years of declining import volumes,” Rabobank forecasted.
The report pointed to a “tentative signal” that China’s domestic oversupply of milk had “hit the bottom”.
With milk volumes delivered in December 1.4% higher than in 2023, Rabobank estimated that New Zealand’s milk output so far this season is almost 3% higher than 2023/24.
However, on a cautionary note, Rabobank warned that the threat of tariffs from the Trump administration in the US and China’s continuing enquiries into various countries’ export policies meant that significant disruption in international trade this year was likely.
Beef front
On the beef front, Rabobank predicted another good year for Kiwi beef farmers in 2025, with slaughter prices holding well above the five-year average.
Like most other exporting countries, numbers of finished cattle remain extremely tight in New Zealand.
New Zealand Meat Board slaughter data for the period from 1 October to 31 December shows that total throughput was down 3% year on year, with the prime steer kill back a massive 12%.
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