In short:
The northern monsoon is dragging its heels as conditions remain hot and extremely humid.
Cotton growers and recreational fishers worry a late monsoon could spell trouble.
What’s next?
Residents hope the rains arrive before the latest-ever monsoon start, which was recorded on January 25, 1973.
With crushing humidity hanging over the Top End, Northern Territorians are waiting desperately for the monsoon to kick off.
The monsoon is dragging its feet; the rains usually turn up in December.
It’s leading to sticky conditions and heatwaves.
And the industries that rely on the rain are starting to get worried.
Fish waiting to bite
Recreational fishing is big business in the Territory, bringing in about $270 million a year to the local economy.
But the rivers rely on monsoon run-off to draw in the fish, and the fishos.
Northern Territory floodplains rely on monsoon rains to burst into life. (Supplied: Amateur Fishermen’s Association of the NT)
The rain is also critical for bait fish to grow.
“Most of the rivers haven’t been up yet, which is the other concerning problem,” said Warren de With, president of the Amateur Fishermen’s Association of the NT.
“Normally, the Katherine River at this time of year should be running between 7 and 10 metres.
“At the moment it’s at normal levels [about 2 metres].
“It’s only had one small flush through it this year, so it’s well behind where it should be.”
Warren de With is concerned about the lack of rain so far. (ABC Rural: Daniel Fitzgerald)
Mr de With runs a Katherine fishing and outdoor store with his son Trevor.
“If we get a good monsoonal burst that produces a standard month’s worth of rain in one or two weeks, that’s what we really look forward to,” Trevor de With said.
“But if we don’t get that, then the season could be in a bit of strife.
“It has a huge impact on the NT economy.”
Cotton growers eye the skies
The Northern Territory’s cotton industry is small, but rapidly growing — it’s expected to be worth more than $200 million per year this decade.
Cotton requires large amounts of water.
While about 5 per cent of the industry irrigates, the rest relies on the rain, says North Australian Cotton Association president Bruce Connolly.
Bruce Connolly says the late wet season is a challenge for cotton growers. (ABC News: Michael Franchi)
With about 12,000 hectares of newly-planted cotton, Territory growers are anxiously awaiting the heavy rains that signal the beginning of the monsoon.
“Sadly, down around Katherine and south-west of Katherine it’s not ideal,” Mr Connolly said.
“The wet season was a little bit later coming in for some of those growers and they’ve had a bit of a challenging time getting their crop in the ground.”
When will the heat break?
The build-up to the monsoon has been grinding on for months.
While some limited rain in September suggested an early wet season, the true monsoon is yet to arrive.
It’s now dragging towards the monsoon’s latest-ever recorded onset of January 25, in 1973.
It’s all down to an atmospheric feature known as the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), which is currently crawling across the Western Pacific.
“The MJO has not been very active in the last month or so,” North Australia Climate Program lead Andrew Marshall said.
“We are looking at it entering the Australian region in the next few weeks.”
North Australian residents are waiting for the monsoon to break. (Twitter: BOM)
Sally Cutter from the Bureau of Meteorology says a special combination of factors need to combine to make the monsoon break.
“We’re looking at westerly winds picking up across the Top End towards the end of next week,” Ms Cutter said.
“That may or may not bring the monsoon.
“To get the really, really heavy falls you generally need something that’s forcing the mechanism, like a low [pressure system].”
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