Canadian Ag Minister Warns of $200 Million in Daily Ag Trade Disruption.
Canadian Agriculture Minister Lawrence MacAulay on Tuesday expressed his concerns about a trade war and the disruption it would cause to $200 million in food and agricultural products that cross between the U.S. and Canada every day.
President Donald Trump on Monday reaffirmed that his administration plans to put 25% tariffs on all products from Canada and Mexico starting as early as March 4 after a 30-day delay was set in early February. “The tariffs are going forward on time, on schedule,” Trump said at a White House event.
Both Canadian and Mexican officials have warned that they would retaliate in kind if those tariffs go into effect.
MacAulay spoke briefly to state agricultural directors attending the winter policy conference for the National Association of State Departments of Agriculture (NASDA). MacAulay met informally with several state ag leaders on Monday and had meetings scheduled with senators and congressmen, he said. Saskatchewan Minister of Agriculture Daryl Harrison also spoke to NASDA members in the afternoon.
MacAulay highlighted the $200 million in agricultural and food products that cross the border between the U.S. and Canada every day.
“We do our part to help feed Americans, and we know that you are vital to providing us in Canada with products that we so vitally need,” MacAulay said.
For several states, Canada is the largest market for livestock, processed foods and even biofuels. Canada is the top market for U.S. ethanol exports, for instance.
“Any disruption … would be devastating to both of our countries,” MacAulay said. “It is in our interests to avoid that.”
MacAulay noted, “The ties between our two nations run deep. We have been by your side in times of war. We’ve answered your call in times of great need. We are partners, allies, neighbors, but most of all, we’re great friends.”
IMPACT ON NORTH AMERICAN FARMERS
In a brief interview with DTN, MacAulay said he wouldn’t want to speculate on what exactly would happen if the U.S. places tariffs on Canadian agricultural products, but he stressed the impact on North American farmers overall.
“The agricultural sector in North America, particularly between Canada and the U.S., has been so vital over the years and we don’t want to see any disruption in that,” MacAulay said.
In talking about integration, MacAulay said cattle feeders in Florida bring in cattle that graze in Western Canada. Some cattle may cross the border five or six times in their lives.
The U.S. pork industry also relies heavily on Canadian pigs.
“We send hundreds of thousands of piglets into the U.S., which of course will affect the market, and it goes on and on, no matter what you are talking about. In the fruit and vegetable sector when you go into the markets where I’m from and see snow on the ground, but a beautiful display of fresh fruits and vegetables and it all comes from down here,” he said.
CONCERNS OF RECIPROCAL TARIFFS
U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuchar, D-Minn., ranking member of the Senate Agriculture Committee, also spoke to NASDA members. She raised concerns about reciprocal tariffs and the impacts that can have on farmers losing market share.
“We know those are some of our best trading partners,” she said, adding, “Your voices on this are going to be very, very important.”
Klobuchar pointed to the prospect of tariffs on potash imports from Canada, citing an analysis suggesting tariffs on potash would increase the costs to corn farmers by $1.70 an acre and $1.42 an acre for soybeans. The U.S. imports more than 90% of potash fertilizer, and 87% of those imports come from Canada. That equates to about 11 million to 12 million metric tons a year.
According to recent DTN fertilizer price data, potash is approximately $444 per ton. A University of Illinois report in early February said a full 25% tariff could increase Canadian potash prices by more than $100 per ton.
BY THE NUMBERS
U.S. exporters shipped $28.4 billion in agricultural products to Canada in 2024, almost identical to the export value for 2023.
U.S. businesses imported $41.1 billion in agricultural commodities from Canada, up 2% from a year earlier.
U.S. baked goods, fresh vegetables, fruit, ethanol, processed food, dairy products and pet food are all billion-dollar export products to Canada, USDA data highlights.
Canada is the largest export market for U.S. baked goods at $2.8 billion in sales in 2023. Canada was the top market for U.S. vegetables at $1.97 billion.
At $1.74 billion, Canada is the largest buyer of U.S. ethanol, topping all other markets four-fold.
U.S. buyers brought in 793,300 head of cattle from Canada in 2024, according to USDA. Most of those cattle go directly to slaughter.
In turn, Canada is the No. 5 market for U.S. beef exports and bought $896.1 million in beef in 2024, up 2% from a year ago, according to the U.S. Meat Export Federation.
Canada also sent nearly 4 million pigs to U.S. farmers in 2024, primarily to producers in Iowa and Minnesota.
Canada is the No. 5 market for U.S. pork at $852.9 million, down 3% from 2023, according to USMEF.
Canada is the No. 3 market for poultry exports at nearly $504 million in 2023, according to USDA.
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