The latest USDA Milk Production report for July reflects a continuing downward trend, echoing the declines that milk production reports have consistently documented month after month in 2024. While this may seem like a case of “been there, done that,” a deeper dive into the data reveals some surprises worth noting.

Surprising Revisions in June Figures

Phil Plourd, president of Ever.Ag Insights, pointed out particular states where the milk production figures were revised downwards more substantially than anticipated. States such as Colorado, Idaho, and Iowa, which have been dealing with Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) outbreaks, saw significant drops, including:

• Colorado: Revised to -3.7% from an initial -1.1%
• Idaho: Revised to -2.8% from an initial -1.0%
• Iowa: Revised to -1.6% from an initial +1.2%

From a market perspective, Plourd expressed uncertainty about the implications of these revised numbers.

“I don’t know for sure, but looking at this list, some of the states that dropped lower seemed to be states that, anecdotally, were dealing with HPAI outbreaks,” Plourd reported. He added, “From a market perspective, I’m not sure what we do with the knowledge that things in June were worse than initially believed.”

Cow Numbers: A Glimmer of Hope?

While milk production has faced challenges, the situation with cow numbers offered a more nuanced picture. According to Plourd, despite light slaughter numbers, there was an increase of 3,000 head in cow numbers for the month. He noted that the current economic conditions are favorable for production, suggesting that eventually, weather conditions will cooperate more universally. Plourd shares that the U.S. dairy cow story may be more interesting, as slaughter is running light.

“The big questions is how much we can really grow milk production given how tight we are on animals,” Plourd asks.

Detailed Production Figures

The USDA reported that July milk production in the 24 major states totaled 18.2 billion lbs., down 0.2% from July 2023. The revised production figures for June stood at 17.9 billion lbs., down 1.5% from June 2023—a revision indicating a decrease of 137 million lbs., or 0.8% from last month’s preliminary production estimate.

Production per cow in the 24 major states averaged 2,047 lbs. for July, which is 2 lbs. above July 2023. The number of milk cows on farms in these states was 8.88 million head, 31,000 head less than July 2023, but 3,000 head more than June 2024.

Furthermore, New Mexico experienced the largest decline, down 48 million lbs. (-8.9%) and 31,000 head to 491 million lbs., while South Dakota gained 29 million lbs. (+7.4%) to 420 million.

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