Laurence Shalloo, Emer Kennedy and Joe Patton examine 2024 on dairy farms, focusing on production, breeding, nutrient use and costs and margins.
This year was challenging for dairy farmers. Poor spring and early summer weather affected grass growth, silage conservation and grazing conditions. Low milk prices and poor weather in 2023 also depleted cash reserves on many farms. However, a relatively good autumn saw better grazing and pasture growth, leading to savings in silage and concentrate feeding. A recovery in milk prices has bolstered financial margins also.
Milk output
While the latter part of the year was more favourable, annual milk yield per cow is estimated to be down by 1-2% to 418kg milk solids per cow. This, coupled with a slight fall in dairy cow numbers, led to a projected 2-3% reduction in national milk production. Data from the CSO showed a 1.3% drop in dairy cow numbers in June 2024 vs June 2023, the first year that has shown less cows calving than the previous year in 13 years. However, weekly milk delivery volumes in late Q3 and Q4 of 2024 were in line with or exceeding 2021-22 levels, indicating a trend toward recovery in output.
Grass production and fodder supplies
Data from PastureBase Ireland shows that grass production on dairy farms was 1.2t DM lower than the five-year average. This was due mainly to a very wet spring, lower temperatures in the summer (0.4°C and 0.75°C lower than average from June to October at Met stations in Moorepark and Ballyhaise, respectively), and in the southern part of the country, there were relatively dry conditions in the July to September period. Nonetheless, it is expected that 2024 pasture utilisation rates will recover by 0.2-0.4t DM per ha compared to 2023, when very poor weather conditions had arrested a long-term positive trend.
A survey undertaken by Teagasc in September 2024 indicted that at this time, 6% of dairy farmers had a fodder deficit of >20%. Advising farmers on options to address this deficit has been a priority for Teagasc advisors this year.
Breeding
Breeding technology adoption has continued to increase on dairy farms, with use of sexed semen up to 280,000 straws (up from 200,000 in 2023). There has been greater use of high Dairy Beef Index (DBI) bulls, resulting in higher commercial beef value (CBV) calves available from the dairy herd. The average Economic Breeding Index (EBI) of dairy cows increased from €180 in 2021 to €200 in 2024, with a focus on improving fertility, milk index and calving traits in particular. Calving interval reduced by three days to 386 days nationally, while six-week calving rate rose to 68% (+3). The proportion of heifers calving at two years old was 73% in 2023 (+3 since 2021).
Nutrient use and environment impact
There was also a continued focus on increasing protected urea usage, adoption of clover swards, and nutrient management planning. These are all important steps in maintaining and improving the environmental efficiency of the dairy sector.
Agricultural greenhouse gas emissions reduced year on year in 2024; however, further progress will be needed, while improving farm performance and margins in tandem.
Costs and margins
Continued high input prices kept costs high, but milk prices did increase as the year progressed. Teagasc estimates of dairy farm income predict a recovery to an average family farm income (FFI) of €85-90,000, up 80% on 2023, albeit from a low base. Projections for Q1 and Q2 in 2025 are relatively positive also.
Structured farm debt remained relatively stable at approximately €2.29 per kg milk solids. Nonetheless, there was a very large range in dairy farm margins in 2024, with a significant proportion of farms returning low incomes. The underlying reasons for this range will need to be addressed to improve the long-term viability of more dairy farms.
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