The immediate pain is evident in the commodity markets. China’s six-month refusal to purchase U.S. soybeans in retaliation for tariffs left Wisconsin farmers with no customers for their bumper harvest, driving commodity prices low due to high yields paired with depressed demand. Farmers, many of whom were drawn to Trump’s anti-establishment message and criticism of global deals like NAFTA (which they blame for accelerating the “get big or get out” trend), hoped for a long-term payoff from the tariffs, but the short-term damage is proving critical and systemic.

Exacerbating the market volatility is the crackdown on undocumented immigrant labor, which is critical to the state’s flagship industry. Between 60% and 90% of the workforce on Wisconsin dairy farms is comprised of undocumented immigrants. Despite years of relative quiet, recent federal ICE raids targeted farm hands in Manitowoc, a major dairy-producing area, and construction workers in Madison. Farmers are receiving “mixed signals” from the administration—with agency secretaries assuring them of the workforce’s importance while policy advisors push for mass deportations.

The financial “solutions” proposed by the administration have been met with skepticism and rejection. Trump promised to use revenue from the chaotic tariffs to issue bailout payments to farmers, a status now uncertain due to the government shutdown. Economists, such as Gbenga Ajilore of the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, argue this is effectively robbing consumers (who pay higher prices for inputs like farm equipment and fertilizer due to tariffs) to pay back the same farmers, calling it “no real solution.” Furthermore, Darin Von Ruden, president of the Wisconsin Farmers Union, stated unequivocally that farmers “want to receive our money from the marketplace,” not through bailouts.