NFDM was projected to average $1.2450 per pound in 2021, up 2 cents from last month’s estimate, and compares to $1.0417 in 2020 and $1.0419 in 2019. The 2022 average will climb to $1.38, up 11 cents from what was expected last month.

Whey was projected to average 56.50 cents per pound in 2021, up a penny from last month, and compares to 36.21 cents in 2020 and 37.99 cents in 2019. The 2022 average will slip to 51 cents, up a penny from last month’s estimate.

Look for the 2021 Class III milk price to average $17.05 per hundredweight, up 40 cents from last month’s projection, and compares to $18.16 in 2020 and $16.96 in 2019. The 2022 average was estimated at $17.10, up 65 cents.

The 2021 Class IV average was pegged at $15.70, up 15 cents from a month ago, and compares to $13.49 in 2020 and $16.30 in 2019. The 2022 average was projected to hit $17.15, up $1.10 from last month’s estimate.

The WASDE had some good news on the feed front. The U.S. corn outlook is for slightly higher production, increased exports, lower feed and residual use, and larger ending stocks. Corn production was forecast to hit 15.02 billion bushels, up 23 million from last month’s forecast and up 6 percent from 2020, on a marginal increase in yield to 176.5 bushels per acre, up 5.1 bushels from last year. Corn supplies were forecast up 72 million bushels from last month, on slightly higher production and increased beginning stocks.

Corn exports were raised 25 million bushels reflecting larger supplies and expectations of reduced competition from other major exporters. Projected feed and residual use was lowered 50 million bushels. With supply rising and use falling, corn ending stocks were raised 92 million bushels. The season-average corn price received by producers was unchanged at $5.45 per bushel.

Total planted area, at 93.3 million acres, was unchanged from the last estimate, but up 3 percent from a year ago. Area harvested was forecast at 85.1 million acres, unchanged from the previous forecast, but up 3 percent from the previous year.

Soybean production was forecast at a record 4.45 billion bushels, up 2 percent from the previous forecast, and up 74 million, or 5 percent, from 2020 on higher yields. Acreage estimates were unchanged from last month. Total planted area, at 87.2 million acres, was unchanged from a month ago but up 5 percent from the previous year. Harvested area was unchanged at 86.4 million acres, up 5 percent from 2020.

The soybean yield was projected at 51.5 bushels per acre, up .9 bushels from September’s forecast. Soybean supplies were projected at 4.7 billion bushels, up 145 million on higher production and beginning stocks. Ending stocks were projected at 320 million bushels, up 135 million from last month. The season-average soybean price was forecast at $12.35 per bushel, down 55 cents, and soybean meal was forecast at $325 per short ton, down $35.

Interesting footnote: StoneX reports that Mexican regulators recently rejected a new genetically modified corn variety for the first time, with seven other GMO corn seed permits waiting long-term for a resolution.

In the week ending Oct. 2, 60,700 dairy cows were sent to slaughter, up 300 from the previous week, and 2,900, or 5 percent, above that week a year ago. The four-week rolling total is up 4.53 percent from a year ago, according to StoneX, as cull prices continue to hold a premium over last year’s levels.

Analyst and editor of the Dairy and Food Market Analyst newsletter, Matt Gould, said in the Oct. 18 “Dairy Radio Now” broadcast that the WASDE recognized the tight margins on dairy farms where either the milk price hasn’t been high enough or feed prices haven’t been low enough and the breakeven level is not being met.

He said New Mexico was hit the hardest and is where, in the past 100 days or so, 15,000 cows came up for auction. He concluded, saying the report had good news on feed, but “we’re far from a world where we’re talking about cheap feed. With corn at $5 per bushel and higher, it costs significantly more to feed a cow this year than it did last year,” and farmers tell him, their break evens are $2-3 higher this year than they were a year ago, and run around $18.80 per hundredweight.