The USDA’s latest forecast estimates a record-breaking $45.5 billion trade deficit for U.S. agriculture in fiscal year 2025, surpassing the $42.5 billion projected earlier this year.
Agricultural exports are anticipated to reach $170 billion, slightly higher than earlier estimates but still well below the 2022 peak. Meanwhile, imports are projected to climb to $215.5 billion, driven by growing demand for products like tropical fruits, sugar, and other imported goods.
Global price declines continue to affect key sectors, particularly cotton and soybean farmers, while gains in livestock, dairy, corn, and sorghum exports fall short of compensating for broader losses.
“As goes the price of some of our key agricultural exports, so goes our total export value, and that also is a big contributor to farm income,” USDA chief economist Seth Meyer said in a USDA news release.
The forecast also highlights risks from potential 25% tariffs on agricultural imports from Canada and Mexico, two of the U.S.’s largest trading partners. Exports to Mexico are expected to reach $29.9 billion, closely followed by $29.2 billion to Canada.
With a growing trade deficit and increasing import pressures, the agricultural sector faces significant challenges. Addressing global competition and shifting market dynamics will be critical to sustaining farmers’ incomes and long-term stability.
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