An unprecedented shift in the U.S. dairy cattle population could signal uncertainty ahead in terms of milk production, cow numbers, and prices – for both the milk and the animals.
At the center of the current conversation: heifers, and more specifically, lack of them. In the most recent USDA Cattle Inventory report, released January 31, 2025, the inventory of dairy heifers weighing 500 pounds or more totaled just 3.914 million head. That’s the lowest count for that population since 1978.
Included in the total are heifers expected to calve into the milking herd in 2025, estimated at 2.5 million head. That figure has dropped precipitously every year since 2017, when about 600,000 head of additional heifers freshened. The current number of heifers expected to calve is also the lowest since the USDA began tracking that figure in 2001.
The shift in heifer population nearly identically mirrors the adoption of beef crossbreeding to add more value to non-replacement dairy cattle. It’s currently doing just that. With the U.S. beef cow herd size also hovering at near-historic, low levels, demand for those beef-cross calves is high, leading to almost-unheard-of prices of $1,000/head or more for newborn calves.
Likewise, springing heifers are scarce — and expensive — on the open market. Holstein springers started topping $4,000/head on the high end in Pipestone, Minn. toward the end of 2024. And at the Turlock Livestock Auction Yard’s January Dairy Video Sale in Turlock, Calif., potloads of Holstein and Jersey springers brought an average of $3,650-3,700 and $2,750-2,900/head, respectively.
Tight heifer supplies mean herds are generally creating just enough heifers to meet their projected replacement needs. Meanwhile, the nation’s milking herd is not growing, continuing to hover at around 9.35 million head.
What remains to be seen is whether an aging dairy herd will affect total milk production if producers hang onto cows longer before marketing them for beef. Any hiccup, like bird flu or another unforeseen challenge, could leave producers scrambling to maintain herd size.
Finally, while many factors remain in play, one benefit of the changing supply-and-demand dynamic could be a boost in milk prices. The all-milk price forecast for 2025 is $23.05 per hundredweight, up about 50 cents year-over-year. A shift in heifer supplies will take at least two years to happen, so those benefits could be enjoyed relatively long term.
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