Rising tide of prices bodes well for the 2026 milk price forecast, due out May 29.
Global Dairy Trade prices paused for breath in the final auction of the 2025 dairy season, the GDT index easing 0.9%.
The New Zealand season ended with the GDT index at 1333, compared with 1143 in late May 2024, a rise of 16% and a steady improvement over the 12 months.
The rising tide of prices is most evident in whole milk powder, up 27% over the past year.
That bodes well for the 2026 milk price forecast, due out May 29, as WMP is the biggest volume dairy commodity produced in NZ and is the Fonterra base reference product.
Its sister product, anhydrous milk fat, had substantial up and down price movements twice during the year and ended the year minus 2%, including a plus 0.9% in the final auction.
Cheese exporting has been very profitable for Fonterra in 2024-25, cheddar gaining 18% and mozzarella 13%.
Along with the first 2025-26 farmgate milk price forecast, Fonterra will report its third-quarter FY2025 results and the prices made for non-reference products not sold on the GDT platform.
NZX dairy analyst Rosalind Crickett said the buying power in the second May 2025 GDT auction came from South and Central America for WMP and North Asia (China) took a healthy 37% of all volume across all products.
Purchasing by European and Middle Eastern buyers was down as European milk production builds to its seasonal peak.
Butter and cheese production in the United States went up 8% and 4% respectively in March, compared with a year ago, and that may boost US exports in a period of trade uncertainties, she said.
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